Trump's Second Term Economy: Uncertainty Reigns—These Charts Explain Why.

President Donald Trump's initial 100 days in office were brimming with economic actions, including tariff implementations and federal dismissals.
While much of this hasn't yet shown up in job numbers or inflation measures, several other measures are flashing red.
I revisited the shifts in stock performance, consumer confidence levels, and business optimism.

It's the hundredth day. President Donald Trump His second term has been filled with significant economic transformations.

He has signed more than 100 executive orders and could raise the average effectiveness. tariff reached the peak level in more than a hundred years, and has carved out significant portions of the federal government .

Current hard economic figures do not yet capture many of President Trump’s recent policy changes: The employment sector continues along its steady, albeit decelerating, path. inflation continued moving downward towards the Federal Reserve's objective even as major new tariffs were about to be implemented.

However, that could all change in the coming months. Implementing tariffs could result in a surge in inflation and more stock sell-offs. More reorganization in the federal government could mean more job seekers for fewer positions, sending unemployment higher.

"We think certain elements within the policy agenda will eventually boost economic growth—specifically measures related to taxation and deregulation—but concerns over how tariffs might impact both employment rates and inflation trends have somewhat diminished optimism," said Michael Hans, who serves as the chief investment officer at Citizens Wealth, during an interview with Business Insider.

Sentiment data, chaos in the markets , along with interviews involving small business owners, consumers, and economists indicate Americans are worried .

"In just 100 days into President Trump’s second term, the March inflation report showed the first monthly decline in prices for several years. Additionally, major companies like Apple, Hyundai, and Nvidia announced multi-trillion-dollar investments aimed at bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.,” stated White House spokesperson Kush Desai. “During his initial term, President Trump orchestrated an unprecedented economic boom, and he continues this momentum during his second term.”

This outlines how individuals perceive things, how market dynamics have shifted, and the potential implications of new tariffs.

Consumer sentiment has sunk

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index has declined every month this year. In early 2017, when President Trump initially took office, consumer confidence was actually higher, even though joblessness was greater and inflation levels were similar back then.

Matt Colyar, an economist at Moody's Analytics, suggested that it's logical to anticipate a decline in sentiment as the "substantial impacts" of tariffs and other policies take effect. Already, some consumers have begun to show this trend. panic-buying cars along with electronics, and just a few Companies have already declared price hikes. .

"I believe solid evidence will align with qualitative insights, and we'll begin observing an economy expanding at a considerably slower pace," Colyar stated.

The S&P 500 appears more favorable compared to early this month, though still below where it started the year.

Colyar mentioned that this year’s fluctuations in stock values have been influenced by responses to tariff declarations and their possible effects.

The S&P 500 dropped following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on April 2. Although the index had shown some recovery, it fell again after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments. feedback on duties and price hikes on April 16.

"The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated," Powell said. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth."

Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, told Business Insider many consumers use the market to gauge the economy. She added with its volatility and recent losses, "it's possible that consumers can internalize that and have even worse expectations for the economy, their finances, their jobs."

People are willing to accept less money to get a job

The jobless rate is low, yet individuals are facing delays in securing employment. This situation has persisted since prior to Trump’s second term as president. There are expectations of finding a new role have remained steady this year.

However, What salary would individuals agree to work for? fell in March from the New York Fed's previous survey in November, suggesting that prospective job seekers are feeling more anxious about finding work and are less choosy with their options.

Business optimism has cooled from a postelection high

When Trump won the election, small business confidence surged, reaching its peak in December. However, since then, the National Federation of Independent Business’s small business optimism index has declined somewhat. Despite this drop, the current level of the index remains above what it was in recent years, indicating that there is still an underlying sense of hopefulness.

Bill Dunkelberg, the chief economist for NFIB, stated that business proprietors have reduced their projections regarding sales growth as they assess the impact of various policies on their operations.

Peterson from The Conference Board stated that certain sectors will be impacted more significantly by these tariffs compared to others. Several smaller enterprises have responded by increasing their stock levels before the tariff implementation or delaying their business initiatives.

"Oftentimes, when businesses and consumers are concerned about the future because of uncertainty, they will stop their activity," Peterson said. "Businesses won't invest or they won't hire, consumers won't spend, they'll just kind of sit there and wait and see what happens."

The effective tariff rate might reach its peak level not seen in over a hundred years.

Trump has made several announcements about tariffs, including during what he called "Liberation Day" on April 2, when he announced broad tariffs with rates of over 40% on some countries. Many of these plans have been paused for now. China has retaliated, imposing tariffs on the US.

The Budget Lab at Yale projects the average effective tariff rate could hit 28%, the highest since 1901, assuming that businesses and consumers keep buying their current mix of imports. Even after factoring in likely spending shifts to less-tariffed imports, The Budget Lab estimates it would be 18%, the highest rate since 1934 .

The Budget Lab found leather products, apparel, and electrical equipment could especially see higher prices. The increase could be small for food.

Faith in the economic situation has declined.

The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board, reflecting people's views on present and anticipated economic circumstances, has dropped.

Peterson mentioned that individuals are concerned about inflation. job prospects . She said there's also uncertainty about taxes.

"If they stay low, it doesn’t significantly affect the economy; however, should these taxes abruptly increase again, that would put considerable strain on economic conditions," she stated.

The dollar index has dropped to its lowest level since 2022.

The dollar index has plunged During Trump's first 100 days, it has recently dropped to its lowest point since 2022.

"Typically, you impose tariffs, the dollar would appreciate, but I think the dollar is depreciating right now because there's a lot of nervousness," Peterson said.

Analysts said Trump's recent comments about Powell , including urging Powell to reduce interest rates right away and stating He has no plans to dismiss him. , have played a role. Investor Louis Navellier believes the dollar will recover since "other currencies such as the British Pound and the euro are also experiencing their own downturns."

Uncertainty has skyrocketed

In March, the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, based on media stories about the economy, expiring federal tax code provisions, and forecasters, has about doubled its level from January. Many Americans are feeling uncertain regarding how these policies affect them or the economic forecast.

Someone informed Business Insider that they impulsively purchased a laptop due to the announced tariffs. A business proprietor mentioned that he’s postponing expansion plans. Additionally, an individual who has been out of work for a significant period expressed hope that they might secure employment suited to their skills soon, as they're concerned about an impending economic downturn.

The 10-year Treasury has shown volatility

The bond market has also been very sensitive to Trump's tariff moves, which sparked sharp losses for investors.

The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped up to 4.49%, rising by as much as 50 basis points following President Trump’s tariff statements on April 2nd. This rapid change in yields led to a sharp decline in bond prices, disproportionately affecting retirees who generally allocate most of their investments to fixed-income instruments.

The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index fell by up to 4% within a single week as investors recalibrated their expectations for interest rate movements amid President Trump’s tariff policies. These new trade tariffs ignited concerns about rising inflation, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to counteract this trend by increasing interest rates in the future.

The elevated interest rates also snagged Trump administration off guard , as they are laser-focused on refinancing government debt at a lower interest rate.

The ups and downs of the bond market in response to policy moves "will likely be a focal point and may help guide policymakers within the administration," Hans of Citizens Wealth said.

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