Elon Musk: China's 2025 GDP Surpasses U.S. by $7T and EU by $14T, Stunning Analysts

According to recent data shared by Tesla and xAI CEO Elon Musk, China appears to have surpassed both the United States and the European Union in terms of GDP when measured using purchasing power parity (PPP).

Musk credited these estimates to his AI company’s model called Grok, predicting that China’s GDP would reach $35.29 trillion in 2025. In comparison, the US was projected to have a GDP of $28.78 trillion, with the European Union forecasted at $21.99 trillion.

On an April 29 blog post, Musk discussed these statistics stating, "Most people find this surprising." According to the data he presented, when measured using purchasing power parity (PPP), China’s economy appears to be approximately 1.23 times larger than the U.S. economy and around 1.6 times larger than the European Union's economy.

The World Economics magazine also released forecasts aligning with Musk’s statement. According to their predictions, China’s GDP for 2025 will reach $43.2 trillion, an increase from $41.3 trillion in 2024 and standing at about 26% above the figures provided officially by the World Bank.

China’s economy was more robust than the US in 2025.

On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s GDP was evaluated at 31.88 trillion yuan, equivalent to about $4.4 trillion, marking a rise of 5.4% compared to the previous year when adjusted for inflation.

Total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter stood at 12.5 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion), a 4.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Growth in March reached 7.7%, the highest since December 2023. Online retail sales rose by approximately 7.9% to reach 3.6 trillion yuan ($493.2 billion) during the same timeframe.

Total trade volume reached 10.3 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in the first quarter, up 1.3% year-on-year. Exports rose 6.9% to 6.1 trillion yuan ($834.4 billion), but imports fell by 6% to 4.2 trillion yuan ($567.5 billion), against the backdrop of weak domestic demand. Total trade reached 3.8 trillion yuan ($512.5 billion).

The US economy decelerates due to tariff concerns.

On the contrary, the United States seems to be entering a period of sluggish economic expansion in early 2025. Nevertheless, the U.S. Treasury Department has indicated that the official GDP figures for the initial quarter will only be published following the TBAC meeting scheduled for April 29th.

As reported by The Wall Street Journal survey Conducted in mid-April, the median prediction for U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter is only 0.4%, when annualized. This represents a significant drop compared to the 2.4% rate seen in the last quarter of 2023. The survey revealed differing views among economists, with forecasts ranging from as low as 0.1% up to more optimistic estimates.

The predictions were made prior to President Donald Trump's tenure. announced A 90-day halt on new reciprocal tariffs began on April 9 and is expected to be adjusted downward.

On Wednesday, April 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its initial forecast of economic growth for Q1. Experts anticipate this figure to be modest, with several organizations predicting stability or even decline. Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts a decrease of 0.2%, whereas Bank of America anticipates an increase of 0.4%.

Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, offered one of the most pessimistic estimates, suggesting GDP may have shrunk by 1.4% in the first quarter. He resonated his predictions to weaker consumer spending and delayed business investment.

"There's a strong possibility of a decline in the first quarter," Adams said. reckoned.

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