Globalization Is Dead

Tariffs, Subsidies, and the Battle to Mold the Upcoming Global Order: Antonio Gramsci , an Italian political theorist composing texts from within a fascist prison during the 1930s, articulated something enduring about periods of deep upheaval.

He observed that when ancient structures crumble and modern frameworks haven't yet emerged, the outcome tends to be disorder, ambiguity, and the emergence of powers previously considered inconceivable.

Today, nearly a hundred years later, his cautionary message resonates with an eerie sense of recognition. Throughout the globe, the systems that shaped the era following the Cold War – particularly the organizations promoting open commerce and democratic ideals – are weakening.

Globalization Is Over

A new world is endeavoring to come into being, yet it remains still forming, with instability, competition, and uncertainty prevailing in the interim gap. growing .

Unipolarity has ended. The lengthy curve of history continues. neoliberal Globalization appears to have reached its conclusion. The phenomenon previously seen as unavoidable—the expansion of open markets promoting liberty, global supply chains uniting nations, and prosperity erasing historical conflicts—has actually shown significant constraints. This ongoing situation is not merely a fleeting disturbance; rather, it marks the close of one epoch and heralds the tumultuous beginnings of a fresh phase.

The indications have been mounting for decades. The economic crash In 2008, the flaws within the global financial system were laid bare. The pandemic dispelled notions regarding the robustness of supply chains. Additionally, the resurgence of major power competition highlighted that economic interconnectedness wouldn’t deter rivalries. Wars Sanctions, technological disconnection—these are not fleeting tempests. They are the climate of a new epoch.

The query on everyone’s mind today is whether the United States has what it takes to truly triumph. tariff war When Beijing is ready to invest substantially in supporting its industries, competing against China becomes challenging. Annually, the country allocates between three to four percent of its GDP for industrial subsidies, protecting crucial areas from international market forces. Tariffs It might increase expenses for Chinese products, however, subsidies could mitigate this issue, allowing manufacturing operations to continue despite diminished fundamental competitive edge.

Initially, it might appear as though this is an unwinnable fight. However, things aren’t always what they seem. The extensive subsidies provided by China do not indicate strength; rather, they point towards fatigue. An energetic economy should not require constant governmental assistance. Presently, China’s industry strategy acts more like a prop for a framework burdened with debt, facing population decline, suffering from ecological damage, and hindered by rigid politics. While these incentives can delay the inevitable day of judgment, they won’t stop it entirely.

The main idea is that the United States isn’t engaged in a traditional tariff war aimed at winning in the conventional sense; instead, it’s striving to adapt to a new reality. reality Tariffs, supply chain relocation, export restrictions — these represent initial steps in a broader transition away from the outdated principles of the unipolar period. The true competition isn’t over whether tariffs will surpass subsidies. Instead, it’s about whether the U.S. can reshape its economic and strategic underpinnings for an epoch where dominance trumps efficiency in determining results.

China’s trajectory offers significant insights into the future of the global economy. Integration has failed to bring about democratization. China It gave strength to this idea. Beijing seized the instruments of globalization and repurposed them as weapons. However, China is not the invincible entity it was previously thought to be. Its economic progress has decelerated. Its population is graying. Debt burdens are stifling expansion. The formula driving its ascent—substantial investments, inexpensive workforce, trade surpluses—is crumbling due to inherent inconsistencies.

Meanwhile, China’s achievement in constructing a massive industrial power has increased global risk. Commerce and investments are no longer seen as purely impartial. Each supply chain, every stream of data, and each monetary exchange now holds significant strategic importance. The traditional dream The idea of a smooth global economy is now outdated. Instead, we have a more rugged, competitive system defined by national interests, geopolitical maneuvers, and tough decisions.

Although progressing gradually, the United States is starting to recognize this shift. The imposition of tariffs on products from China, initiatives to repatriate key sectors, funding for semiconductor development, and restrictions on pivotal technologies—all of these measures likely wouldn’t be occurring had the former agreement remained intact. These actions signify the onset of a new era: one where safeguarding national security takes precedence over abstract economic principles.

However, tariffs by themselves are insufficient. The more significant challenge lies in establishing a fresh structure for national strength. This involves rejuvenating American manufacturing sectors. It entails aligning financial systems with tangible economic activities. It requires reassessing trade, investment, and technological policies from perspectives of autonomy and robustness rather than merely cost-effectiveness and productivity. Additionally, this calls for forming partnerships grounded not only in common ideals but also mutual strategic interests.

Global organizations like the WTO and the IMF will also need to adapt. Along with the remaining entities from the previous system, they must evolve. Bretton Woods The mechanisms of these orders were designed for a world that no longer exists. These systems might undergo reform; they could even be substituted. Yet, we can’t depend on them to navigate the approaching turmoil. Fresh regulations, standards, and organizations will arise—emerging via experimentation, missteps, and occasionally disputes.

This same principle holds true beyond the borders of the United States. Europe Must put an end to the pretense of being able to thrive as a non-aligned entity in a global landscape divided into geopolitical groupings. Nations like India, Japan, and Brazil—all must grapple with tough decisions regarding where they stand within this shifting worldwide framework. Achieving strategic independence will become paramount. Those unable to attain it risk finding themselves exposed to influences beyond their management.

This won’t be simple. The global transition isn’t occurring seamlessly from one international system to another; rather, we’re seeing stumbles, conflicts, and abrupt moves towards a fresh balance. Disintegration will pose dangers. Rivalry will create challenges. confrontation Certain areas will transform into battle zones not only for dominance but also for sheer survival.

The aim is neither to withdraw into seclusion nor to achieve supremacy via brute force. Instead, the objective is to construct a framework wherein national autonomy holds genuine weight, strategic durability takes precedence, and collaboration occurs grounded in reality rather than illusion, founded upon mutual power.

Many people continue to envision reviving the former global system and reconstructing the fragmented tapestry of globalization. However, the fibers have frayed beyond repair. The previous framework is irreversibly deteriorating. We must construct a new future from the ground up, acknowledging the current truths we confront.

Gramsci recognized this in his era. It falls upon us to observe it in our times. The previous order is fading away. A novel system is striving for existence. Yet, the monstrosities occupying the gap won’t vanish without effort. These entities have to be faced head-on, restrained, and vanquished by individuals ready to construct a framework more robust than what remains from past devastation.

What lies ahead is clear, though the journey may prove difficult. We must either muster the bravery to create a fresh system suited for an increasingly fragmented and contentious landscape, or risk being devoured by the perils of transformation.

About the Author: Andrew Latham

Andrew Latham serves as a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities and holds the position of professor for international relations and political theory at Macalester College located in Saint Paul, MN.

Please follow National Security Journal Check out MSN for the most recent updates on defense, foreign policy, economics, and politics, all presented from a balanced perspective.

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